John McCain and his surrogates have been crisscrossing the country, gamely predicting that they will pull off a "Truman beats Dewey" shocker in the election tomorrow. That seems highly unlikely, for three reasons: 1) In the 1948 Truman/Dewey election, when the polls proved so wrong, the science of population sampling was in its infancy, and was far more primitive than the sampling techniques of today; 2) In 1948, pollsters Roper and Gallup were lulled into complacency themselves, ending their polling a week before the election; 3) The sheer number of polls today, and the subsequent averaging of them, is a significant check on sampling error in any given poll.

As I write this the day before the election, three pollsters have just issued their final reports of the campaign:

1) Gallup predicts that independents will break significantly for Obama, with the final result being Obama 55%, McCain 44%. In 2004, the final Gallup Poll showed the race a tie at 49% for Kerry and Bush.

2) The final Pew Research Poll has the race 52% Obama, 46% McCain. In 2004, Pew predicted a 51-48 margin for Bush, nailing the outcome exactly.

3) The final CNN/Opinion Research Poll shows Obama with a 53-46 lead in the election. Four years ago, the final CNN poll showed Bush with a 2 point advantage. Bush eventually won by 3 per cent.

At the statistically rigorous website, fivethirtyeight.com, numbers-cruncher Nate Silver lists the 14 most recent, major, presidential polls. All of them show Obama winning, ranging from the CBS/NYTimes poll, which shows an edge of 13% points, to the IDB/TIPP poll, which gives Obama a 2% national lead. It is noteworthy that the polls which incorporate cell phone sampling in their methodology give Obama the greatest leads. This is presumably because contacting cell phones expands the sample to a younger group of voters, who overwhelmingly favor Obama.

Before I give my own prediction of the popular and electoral outcome, I would be remiss if I didn't give some props to the poll which has predicted the winner of the presidential race accurately in 12 of the last 13 elections, stretching back 52 years: The Weekly Reader Poll. Every election cycle, the Weekly Reader asks the views of its readership, school children from K through 12. The only election since 1956 where the Weekly Reader Poll erred, was the Clinton win in 1992, and that was probably because they left Ross Perot off the ballot. Otherwise, the Weekly Reader's national poll of students has been uncannily accurate. In 1972, the Weekly Reader Poll accurately predicted that Nixon would carry 49 states to only two for McGovern. In 1980, while some pollsters had the race close between Reagan and Carter, the Weekly Reader predicted a blow-out. This year, the kids predict a similar Obama blow-out: 54.7% for Obama, 42.9% for McCain. The other 2.4% went to other candidates. This result is almost identical to that of the Gallup Poll. On the electoral front, it was even more lopsided,as The Weekly Reader forecast a 420 to 118 electoral rout.

One last piece of data: A look at the offshore betting shops shows that they have made Obama a 10 to 1 favorite in the election. This means that in order to win $100 betting on Obama, you would have to risk $1000!

So with all of that data to build on, here is my fearless prediction for 2008. Obama will win the popular vote 53% to 45%, with the remainder going to Ralph Nader and Bob Barr. In the all-important electoral count, Obama will eke by in Florida, and Virginia. Obama will also hold on to Pennsylvania, overcoming a surge of white, working class support for McCain. By virtue of superior organization, Obama will also squeeze by in Ohio, with comfortable wins in Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and of course, Illinois. Early voting and a massive turnout by students and African-Americans in North Carolina will give Obama a win there. McCain will take Georgia, hold on to Indiana, and will nip Obama in Missouri. Out west, Obama will triumph in Nevada, New Mexico, and gain a sweet victory in Colorado. McCain will escape humiliation in Arizona, and will win Montana and North Dakota. McCain will make no inroads in New Hampshire, and Obama will make no inroads in Nebraska. The final electoral result will be Obama 353, McCain 185.

I invite all readers to show some cojones, and make predictions of your own in the comments section!

Finally, many have told me that they fear a withdrawal phase once the election is over, a letdown from all the campaign excitement. Not I. Personally, I can't wait for the real business of governing to begin under an Obama administration . And don't try to reach me on Wednesday morning; I'll still be out celebrating!