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Hillary Clinton's poor showing in both North Carolina and Indiana, virtually sealing the nomination for Obama, may actually have been a blessing not only for Obama and the Democratic Party, but for Hillary herself. Conceding the nomination to Obama sooner rather than later, might save Hillary not only millions of dollars that she will probably never see again from her campaign, but it could also save her reputation within the party. I say that because over the last several weeks the Clinton campaign has taken on a sour and cynical tone that could, if continued, create lasting damage for Hillary. Take, for example, the first Clinton conference call held after Indiana and North Carolina: Spinmasters Geoff Garin and Howard Wolfson were reduced to boasting about how well Clinton had done with the "white vote" in those states (We were running even with white voters two weeks ago, but earned a significant win, 24 points"). Their numerous references to white voters, "swing voters," "blue collar voters," and "working class voters," were all designed to send one not-so-subtle message: We're the white candidate, he's black candidate, we can attract blue collar white voters and he can't. It is the toxic and desperate hope of the Clinton campaign at this point that there is enough resistance to a black candidate in the hinterland, that the remaining super delegates will come running toward Hillary. For a Democratic to base a campaign strategy on racism among lower class whites is one of several unseemly subtexts in the Clinton campaign.
Also, yesterday, Lisa Caputo, Hillary's former press secretary, was suggesting that Hillary might want to keep the nomination fight alive, just to see if "the other shoe drops," in other words, if they can find something damaging about Obama between June and August. The notion that Hillary would contemplate spending the summer rooting against Obama, in the hope that she might be able to ambush and sabotage the presumptive Democratic nominee, tells you everything you need to know about the Clinton campaign. It's far more about Hillary than it is the Democratic Party.
It is likely, however, that the elder statesmen in the party like George Mcgovern, who yesterday shifted his allegiance from Hillary to Obama, may bring this agonizing campaign to a conclusion. When even devoted Hillary supporters like Sen. Diane Feinstein speak out ("I think the race is reaching the point now where there are negative dividends from it, in terms of strife within the party. I think we need to prevent that as much as we can"), it would seem that the end of the campaign is near. Once the nomination fight does conclude, the Democratic party, which has been holding its breath for the last two months, will be able to exhale, and will experience a tremendous burst of energy. For example, the choice of Obama's running mate will itself be an exhilarating event. It will be Obama's first major decision, and will be important both in practical terms, and in terms of symbolically unifying the party. Let's look at some of Obama's options:
1. Hillary. Obviously, there's already much speculation about the prospect of an Obama/Hillary ticket. I believe such a ticket would be a mistake for several reasons. First, I think that after such a bruising, exhausting nomination battle. Obama owes himself the kindness of picking a running whom he actually likes. After all, potentially he will have to work in close quarters with this person for eight years. There are many other players who would bring much to the ticket for whom Obama has far greater regard than Hillary. Yes, it would serve as an olive branch to Hillary's many supporters, but I've always believed that those polls suggesting that 30% of Hillary's voters would defect from Obama were completely bogus. Polls taken in May, in the heat of a primary battle, say nothing about the general election, in which an entirely different atmosphere will prevail. Also, by putting Hillary on the ticket, you may wind up with the worst of all worlds: You further unify the Republicans, and still have to worry about "friendly fire" from the Clintonistas. I would steer well clear of Hillary, who proved during the campaign that she is the true embodiment of the old politics.
2. Tim Kaine, governor of Virginia. There are many things to recommend Tim Kaine as Obama's running mate. Kaine is a southern governor, but grew up in the Midwest, having roots in Missouri, another important swing state. Virginia embodies the shifting demographics of the south, is a state that is solidly in play for the Democrats in 2008, and is a state that showed Obama much love during the primary season. Kaine is Catholic having done a brief stint as a Jesuit missionary in Honduras during his college years, and like Obama, is a graduate of Harvard Law School. Is it striking that he was the first politician to endorse Obama outside the state of Illinois, and on the stump, Kaine has shown himself to be an effective surrogate for Obama. Kaine's unique set of attributes--Midwesterner, southern governor, Catholic, progressive, embodiment of the "new south"--fit Obama like a glove.
3. Ed Rendell, governor of Pennsylvania. One of the reasons that I strongly believe that the atmosphere in the general election will differ markedly from that of the primaries, is that figures like Ed Rendell will be backing Obama, rather than opposing him. Rendell, a staunch Clinton supporter during the primaries, always showed Obama great respect even while fighting against him, and stated numerous times during the heat of battle that if Obama won, he'd work his butt off for Obama in the general election. Rendell is the popular governor of a big state, he's Jewish, a demographic that Obama needs to shore up, and he has a military background. Picking Rendell would be a wiser way of extending an olive branch to Hillary supporters than picking Hillary herself.
In providing this short list of veep prospects, I have left out the politician who I have found to be the most compelling during the primary season, because the politician I have in mind is too new to the scene and is not the obligatory white male. But in an ideal world, I would like to see Claire McKaskill, senator of Missouri as Obama's veep. Mckaskill has perhaps been Obama's most visible, and most winning surrogate over the campaign, consistently making the case for him with great intelligence and geniality. Also, on Super Tuesday, McKaskill may have saved Obama's nomination by delivering Missouri to him in a cliffhanger. Just as Super Tuesday was starting to trend Hillary's way, the squeaker victory in Missouri gave Obama a tie in the battle of perceptions, that set the stage for the tremendous winning streak that followed Super Tuesday. A hearty tip of the cap to Claire McKaskill for her contributions!
Are there obvious (or even "sleeper") veep prospects I have left out? Let me know.
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